Monday, 20 June 2011

AUD/JPY Analysis

Interesting readings on the daily timeframe where we seem to have found strong support at the 84.33 region. Although short term momentum is down, we have had 5 bounces off the 84.33 area. This area was previous resistance on the 18th Feb. This area also marks the 38.2 retrace of the 17th March low. The main overall trend on the daily and weekly charts is up. Also, notice the trading range which seems to have developed between 87.20 and 84.33 area. I'm placing a long order, summarised with reasons below

Reasons:

- Main trend up on Daily and Weekly charts
- 5 bounces off support at 84.33
- Bullish pinbar candle today off 84.33 support
- 38.2 retrace of the 17th March low
- Bottom of the trading range

ORDER to go long at 84.56
STOP: 8400
LIMIT:8680

Risk Reward 4/1

Thursday, 16 June 2011

NZD/USD Analysis

Nice pinbar setup on the daily timeframe for this pair. Only thing i see against this setup is lower time frame momentum is slightly in favour of the bears but i see a confluence of bullish signals which i fancy and it seems as if the lower timeframes possibly need a breather

Reasons to go long:

- Bullish pinbar candle on Daily
- Bounce off 7970 support which was previous resistance
- Main trend on daily chart is up
- The close of the daily bar is around 50% retrace from the 16th May low

Order to open: 8021 (50% retrace of daily candle)
STOP: 7962
LIMIT: 8198

RISK/REWARD 3/1

Tuesday, 24 May 2011

Dow Jones Analysis

Nothing concrete in the Forex markets to trade but ive found a potential short entry on the Dow

Nice bearish pin bar candle on the daily timeframe. Trend is now down. Resistance at 12400 broken and is now support. Same applies to 50MA.

Looking go short on order at 50% retrace of todays daily candle

ENTRY: 12378
STOP: 12438
LIMIT: 12198

RISK/Reward 3/1

Thursday, 19 May 2011

CHF/JPY Analysis

My order from yesterday missed by a couple of pips. However i still a bullish potential in this pair, based on yesterday analysis

On the 4hr timeframe, the upwards channel has broken off sideways but we have a nice inside bar and we have some nice support now at the 92.52 area which we've bounced off 3 times

Price Action is the pin bar so i'm placing a long order on break of the mother candle at 92.84. Stop would be the low of the mother candle plus extra for spread

ENTRY: 92.84
STOP: 92.37
LIMIT: 94.25

RISK/REWARD:3/1

Wednesday, 18 May 2011

CHF/JPY Analysis

Momentum has shifted to the bullish side on the daily timeframe. The pair seems to be ranging from 94.40s to 91.80s. The 4 hour chart shows we are in a bullish channel upwards and we have had roughly 5 bounces off 91.86 support. The daily timeframe also shows a bullish pinbar cnadle. I'll be looking to go long at nearest to 50% retrace of this daily candle as possible to target the top of the rang near 94.40s

Reasons:
- PIN BAR BULLISH
- 5 bounces off 91.86 support
- Trend shifted upwards

Order as below:

ENTRY: 92.44 (strong support on 4hr here so not quite 50% retrace which wouldve been 92.32)
STOP: 91.80
LIMIT:94.36

Risk/Reward: 3/1

Sunday, 15 May 2011

EUR/GBP Analysis

Nice bearish pin bar candle again on the daily timeframe. Problem here is there a few support and resistance areas on either side which could make this choppy

However, the euro is still looking weak and im going for a SHORT order based on the below:

- Bearish pinbar candle
- With downward trend
- Previous resistance now support at 8817, 3/4 candles have bounced back off this area
- This area also marks a 38.2 retrace of the 5th May high
- 9 and 21 emas down and the bearish candle from Friday turned inbetween these moving averages

Looking for a 50% retrace of Fridays candle to go short

Entry on Order: 8750
STOP: 8804
LIMIT: 8642

Risk/Reward: 2/1

EUR/CHF Analysis

Big bearish candle on the daily timeframe suggests weakness for the euro. This pair is also in a bearish channel looks like ti wants to go into the 12300s. There is some big resistance though at 12400 which could be hard to break through. I'm placing a SHORt order based on:

- Big bearish pin bar candle
- With downward trend
- Within channel on dailt timeframe
- Bounces off 12700 support
- Retraced 38.2 of the 28th April high
- With 8 and 21ema which acts as support

Entry is near the 50% retrace of the bear candle and off 8ema at 12625
STOP: 12697
LIMIT: 12451 or near

RISK/REWARD: 3/1