Current short open positions

FTSE Year End - 5221 = 214pts up
FTSE Year End - 5168 = 161pts up
Dax June 10 - 5820 = 245pts up
Dow Year End - 10249 = 385pts up
S&P June 10 - 1116.38 = 52.13 pts up (not pips)

Was that a expanded flat wave 4?

It looked like it. We even had a contracting triangle for Wave C of 4 but not sure. Out of the 3 main ratio analysis guidelines below only point (C) applied, the rest didnt.


A) wave c is 1.618 on wave a
B) wave b 1.236 or 1.382 length of wave a
C) wave c terminates beyond wave A by .618%

In any case, the count seems to be 4 of 5 of 1 of 5. Targets for the bottom could reach as low as 5090. I dont expect a extension of the 5th though as moves after a triangle dont usually last too long.

FTSE Count

Trying to work out potential ending areas for this final 5th.

In the EWP book it says, "A triangle always occurs in a position prior to the final actionary wave". We're in that prior actionary wave now. Another quote, "when a triangle occurs in the fourth wave position, wave five is sometimes swift and travels approximately the distance of the widest part of the triangle." Widest part of the triangle gives us 5140. Wave 3 low gave 5135, so maybe a little further to go.

The very first 5 waves from the top 5601 was 172pts. If 1 = 5 we get 5111 for a wave 5 finish. If 1 = 5 from todays wave 1 (8am-12pm) we get 5123.

61.8 of wave 3 = Wave 5 to be 5119

So that area of 5111-5123 ill be looking for wave 2 to begin. MACD histo, momentum and RSI all show divergences nw on 8hr so we havent long to go imo

FTSE Count

Back to the triangle which worked pretty well

Using Fibs as per Ratio Analysis in the EWP book:

Target for Wave C, i had 5284. It did 5292
Target for Wave D, i had 5214. It did 5199, spike to 5190 due to news but settled at the 5214 area

Target for Wave E, i had 5254 but that ended up being the target for A of E. It reached 5283

So all in all not far off and if you shorted from the C or E waves highs you be in a better position now

Note to myself

Stick to the plan, dont let others blur your view!

I knew a 5th down was coming after that triangle i counted pretty well but the rally up and other comments read elsewhere got me vary!

Scrap that last post

Triangle might still be valid and done. break of 5190 area would confirm 5 in play. Havent got time to look at this properly, will try later on this evening.

Good job i said id give this one a miss last night!

FTSE Count

Triangle scenario invalidated overnight, which might suggest the first 5 waves down are over as we've had 9 wave movements down. However, we could still be in a 4th but the flat looks irregular. Posted the chart in any case.