Thursday, 18 March 2010

EUR/USD Support & Resistance



Euro smashed through various support points today which means i counted the ending diagonal wrong and it was complete.

LIVE TRADE - EUR/USD stopped out

Order triggered overnight and stopped out overnight, -30pips, didnt even get to see the trade :-(

If the low trendline at 13660 gets breached then the 5th wave confirmation down couldve well started

Wednesday, 17 March 2010

LIVE TRADE - EUR/USD orders

Order to long on june contract at 13710. Stop 30pips, limit 100

EUR/USD EWT Analysis



The ending diagonal drawn out yesterday seems to have developed well having bounced off the upper diagonal resistance. The current downleg which im counting as a wave 4of c i have as going to low 13700s before making one more high to complete the diagonal.

In Contracting traingle wave 2 and 4 usually retrace .66 to .81% of the preceding wave. Wave 2 did 61.8%. Wave 4 if it does 61.8 of wave 3 is 13719. I have the bottom diagonal resistance line at 13709.

In the EWT book, the main rules about contracting triangles are:
- Wave 3 is always shorter than wave 1 - TICK
- Wave 4 is always shorter than wave 2 - SO FAR TICK
- Wave 5 is always shorter than wave 3 - STILL TO SEE
- Wave 4 always ends within the price range of wave 1 - SO FAR TICK

So, i am looking to go long at around the 13710 area, looking for 100pts. Again, im going to have to play this by orders as im unable to trade during the day due to work commitments. Stop will be not too far below the rising trendline

EUR/USD Support & Resistance

LIVE TRADES - Closed

I had some remaining shorts open on the dow and s&p from January and have now closed 3 of them. i have 2 short dow positions open now at low stakes, which i'll decide upon whether to hold or not depending on a overdue correction which i feel is due very very soon Have to say though, the holding game is not working at the moment

S&P June open at 1062 closed at 1162.63 = -100
Dow Year End open at 9810 closed at 10589 = -779pts
Dow Year End open at 10076 closed at 10590 = -514pts

Tuesday, 16 March 2010

EUR/USD EWT Analysis



Breaking the previous high suggests the the euro/usd pair has a little further to go. The way in which its rising though seems pretty weak so am looking towards the 38.2 retrace of wave 3 for a turning point. Around this area is a strong resistance line also and also the possibility of a ending diagonal.

Will be looking at bounces off the support and resistance lines and see if they fit in with the ending diagonal pattern