Tuesday, 24 May 2011

Dow Jones Analysis

Nothing concrete in the Forex markets to trade but ive found a potential short entry on the Dow

Nice bearish pin bar candle on the daily timeframe. Trend is now down. Resistance at 12400 broken and is now support. Same applies to 50MA.

Looking go short on order at 50% retrace of todays daily candle

ENTRY: 12378
STOP: 12438
LIMIT: 12198

RISK/Reward 3/1

Thursday, 19 May 2011

CHF/JPY Analysis

My order from yesterday missed by a couple of pips. However i still a bullish potential in this pair, based on yesterday analysis

On the 4hr timeframe, the upwards channel has broken off sideways but we have a nice inside bar and we have some nice support now at the 92.52 area which we've bounced off 3 times

Price Action is the pin bar so i'm placing a long order on break of the mother candle at 92.84. Stop would be the low of the mother candle plus extra for spread

ENTRY: 92.84
STOP: 92.37
LIMIT: 94.25

RISK/REWARD:3/1

Wednesday, 18 May 2011

CHF/JPY Analysis

Momentum has shifted to the bullish side on the daily timeframe. The pair seems to be ranging from 94.40s to 91.80s. The 4 hour chart shows we are in a bullish channel upwards and we have had roughly 5 bounces off 91.86 support. The daily timeframe also shows a bullish pinbar cnadle. I'll be looking to go long at nearest to 50% retrace of this daily candle as possible to target the top of the rang near 94.40s

Reasons:
- PIN BAR BULLISH
- 5 bounces off 91.86 support
- Trend shifted upwards

Order as below:

ENTRY: 92.44 (strong support on 4hr here so not quite 50% retrace which wouldve been 92.32)
STOP: 91.80
LIMIT:94.36

Risk/Reward: 3/1

Sunday, 15 May 2011

EUR/GBP Analysis

Nice bearish pin bar candle again on the daily timeframe. Problem here is there a few support and resistance areas on either side which could make this choppy

However, the euro is still looking weak and im going for a SHORT order based on the below:

- Bearish pinbar candle
- With downward trend
- Previous resistance now support at 8817, 3/4 candles have bounced back off this area
- This area also marks a 38.2 retrace of the 5th May high
- 9 and 21 emas down and the bearish candle from Friday turned inbetween these moving averages

Looking for a 50% retrace of Fridays candle to go short

Entry on Order: 8750
STOP: 8804
LIMIT: 8642

Risk/Reward: 2/1

EUR/CHF Analysis

Big bearish candle on the daily timeframe suggests weakness for the euro. This pair is also in a bearish channel looks like ti wants to go into the 12300s. There is some big resistance though at 12400 which could be hard to break through. I'm placing a SHORt order based on:

- Big bearish pin bar candle
- With downward trend
- Within channel on dailt timeframe
- Bounces off 12700 support
- Retraced 38.2 of the 28th April high
- With 8 and 21ema which acts as support

Entry is near the 50% retrace of the bear candle and off 8ema at 12625
STOP: 12697
LIMIT: 12451 or near

RISK/REWARD: 3/1

Wednesday, 11 May 2011

GBP/JPY Analysis

This pair has developed some pretty bearish price movement today with a huge bearish candle on the daily timeframe.

We have had rejection on 13412 resistance which was previous support twice. We have also twice bounced off 50MA. We have also a 50% bounce off the Fibonacci retrace from the 28th April high

The previous 4 days have Inside bar candles forming where the candles on 6, 9 and 10th May are all within the mother candle on the 5th May. This is a quality price action setup with the trend which is now down. This setup along with the pin bar which broke up above the high of the mother candle then back down again indicates a false break out. This setup is known as the 'Fakey' setup as taught by Nial Fuller on www.learntotradethemarket.com

I would normally place a order to go short at the 50% retrace of todays daily candle. However, as the sell off was steep, i'll place a short order at 8EMA

So im going to go short because:

- With Trend
- Bearish Pin bar candle
- Inside Bars
- 2 bounces off support which was previous resistance
- 2 bounces off 50MA
- 50% retrace off the 28th April high
- 'Fakey' setup (www.learntotradethemarket.com)

ENTRY: 13271
STOP: 13410
LIMIT: 12993

Tuesday, 10 May 2011

AUD/USD analysis

The uptrend looks to have resumed in this pair with the daily timeframes now looking bullish again. 8 and 21ema have also turned up. Price action signals have appeared on the daily chart to go long. To support this, we have:

TREND UP
Bullish pin bar candle
Bounce off 107734 support
Moving averages turned up

Looking for a 50% retrace of the daily candle to enter

ORDER to go long

ENTRY: 10792
STOP: 10728
LIMIT: 10984

RISK REWARD: 3/1

Monday, 9 May 2011

EUR/GBP Analysis

More bullish movement for the britsh pound here

The weekly timeframe posted a huge bearish reversal candle to change the direction of the current trend so am expecting some weakness lower

Daily chart has had to days of big falls and today and produced a bearish pin bar candle as well. theres a lot off niggly support areas but the one im looking at next is the 8669 area which is clear on the weekly chart

The trend is not in our favour on the daily/weekly timeframes which makes this a risky trade but the bearish movement makes the play tempting. 9ema and 21ema have also crossed down on the daily chart which suggests a possible shift in trend. As the stop isnt too big and a potential 2.5/1 risk reward on offer, i'll play the order game here again. 50% retrace of todays daily candle to enter

ENTRY: 8778
STOP: 8822
LIMIT: 8668

RISK/REWARD: 2.5/1





GBP/USD Analysis

The fall that started last week has fallen into support by the way of 50MA, hitting the bottom line of a bearish channel and rejecting 16361 support

It has also formed a bullish candle and most importantly, is still with the trend, giving us a price action setup to go long. Again, im looking for a 50% retrace of todays candle on the daily timeframe to enter to go long. Below order placed:

ENTRY: 16337
STOP: 16263
LIMIT: 16485

RISK/REWARD: 2/1

EUR/CHF Analysis

The pair broke down beautifully as per yesterdays analysis to the the bottom of the channel. Unfortunately my order didn't trigger so missed out on this one but great to see price action giving a good sell signal.

Sunday, 8 May 2011

EUR/CHF Analysis

Dropped off nicely to the down side. Have seen some price action movement which suggests we go lower

TREND - DOWN
PRICE ACTION - Bear pin bar candle on Daily timeframe
SUPPORT in at 12766 area give or take. one bounce off this area
BOUNCE off 8ema
BEARISH CHANNEL down, yet to hit bottom

Looking to go short after a 50% retrace of the bearish candle of Fri 6th May

Order into short at 12661. STOP: 12753. LIMIT: 12477. Risk reward 2/1