FTSE EWT Analysis

This is the FTSE expanded flat Primary wave 2 count on the weekly chart. The count i have is we're in the 5th wave up of the C wave which began at the March lows in 09. Of that 5th wave, i have 3 of 5 done. We now drop for the 4th wave before the final 5th wave up takes it to the 6000 mark, and top of the weekly channel.

If this is indeed a 4th wave correction starting today i have 5500 as a potential 38.2 retrace of wave 3 target. We'll see how it falls though cos again we could be topping P2. (again famous last words) The chart looks like a similar scenario to when we topped on 2007, so the way we drop will give clues as to whether P3 has actually started

Possible FTSE Trade

This is on the 30min chart and one technique i use on the daily chart normally as a swing trade

Waiting for 7.30pm for the next candle but a long position could be on if the green candle stays above 30ema. Trend is still strong

LIVE TRADE - EUR/USD order

Short order on June at 13550, stop 13611.

LIVE TRADES - Closed the lot

This market is a bubble which is getting bigger and bigger and it will burst, but not right now

Dow Year End open at 9837 closed at 10708 = -871pts
Dow Year End open at 10249 closed at 10709 = -460

FTSE June open at 5500 closed at 5641 = -141pts
FTSE June open at 5513 closed at 5641 = -128pts

Amateur trading at its best

LIVE TRADE - EUR/USD order

Not had time to do any charts today but looking at it, 1 of 5 of over and we are in 2of5 up. Im looking at a 38.2 retrace back to the 13600 mark and wave 4 of lesser degree. Order in to to short at 13600, stop 13800, limit will see ;-)

EUR/USD Long term chart

Theres a possible 4th wave triangle playing out, which could lead to dollar weakness later this year. Now if we apply some EWT rules to this triangle we could work out some turning points. C waves retrace roughly 61.8 of Wave A in triangles. That gives a figure of 12853. This also could lead to a bounce of the 2005 and 2008 low support line.

How gutted am i......

The euro trade didnt trigger by the spread, missed out on the 100+ pip drop, typical.....

LIVE TRADE - EUR/USD order

Short order at 13630 on June. Limit 200pips, stop 200pips

EUR/USD Analysis

EUR/USD Support & Resistance

Euro smashed through various support points today which means i counted the ending diagonal wrong and it was complete.

LIVE TRADE - EUR/USD stopped out

Order triggered overnight and stopped out overnight, -30pips, didnt even get to see the trade :-(

If the low trendline at 13660 gets breached then the 5th wave confirmation down couldve well started

LIVE TRADE - EUR/USD orders

Order to long on june contract at 13710. Stop 30pips, limit 100

EUR/USD EWT Analysis

The ending diagonal drawn out yesterday seems to have developed well having bounced off the upper diagonal resistance. The current downleg which im counting as a wave 4of c i have as going to low 13700s before making one more high to complete the diagonal.

In Contracting traingle wave 2 and 4 usually retrace .66 to .81% of the preceding wave. Wave 2 did 61.8%. Wave 4 if it does 61.8 of wave 3 is 13719. I have the bottom diagonal resistance line at 13709.

In the EWT book, the main rules about contracting triangles are:
- Wave 3 is always shorter than wave 1 - TICK
- Wave 4 is always shorter than wave 2 - SO FAR TICK
- Wave 5 is always shorter than wave 3 - STILL TO SEE
- Wave 4 always ends within the price range of wave 1 - SO FAR TICK

So, i am looking to go long at around the 13710 area, looking for 100pts. Again, im going to have to play this by orders as im unable to trade during the day due to work commitments. Stop will be not too far below the rising trendline

EUR/USD Support & Resistance

LIVE TRADES - Closed

I had some remaining shorts open on the dow and s&p from January and have now closed 3 of them. i have 2 short dow positions open now at low stakes, which i'll decide upon whether to hold or not depending on a overdue correction which i feel is due very very soon Have to say though, the holding game is not working at the moment

S&P June open at 1062 closed at 1162.63 = -100
Dow Year End open at 9810 closed at 10589 = -779pts
Dow Year End open at 10076 closed at 10590 = -514pts

EUR/USD EWT Analysis

Breaking the previous high suggests the the euro/usd pair has a little further to go. The way in which its rising though seems pretty weak so am looking towards the 38.2 retrace of wave 3 for a turning point. Around this area is a strong resistance line also and also the possibility of a ending diagonal.

Will be looking at bounces off the support and resistance lines and see if they fit in with the ending diagonal pattern

EUR/USD Support & Resistance

EUR/USD Trade

Stopped out at b/e. So the count yesterday was wrong :-(

EUR/USD EWT Analysis

Possible 5th wave down as started on the pair today and so far it counts well. The chart i have is the bearish option and possible targets for 5 of 3 are 13625 which is 1.618 of wave 1 or 13621 if wave 1 of 3 = to wave 5 of 3

EUR/USD - Support&Resistance

EUR/USD Trade

Not had time to post this on the day it got triggered, but as i said last Monday i put a order in to short the EUR/USD June at 13750 which got triggered last Thursday.

LIVE TRADE - EUR/JPY

Stopped out - 166pts

Well that went tits up right royally! Caught the bottom of a big rally up

Thing is my stop mightve been too close as its bounced off my resistance line i had drawn. Will see if this trade is eventually right

LIVE TRADE - EUR/JPY

Short June 122.25. Looking for 100pts. Stop is 123.91 (previous days high)

EUR/JPY Analysis

Ive picked this pair to analyse as there is a potential shorting opportunity. Using a Swing Trade set up theres a scenario setup where a pullback might be done. Indicators are starting to point down and theres a nice bear flag too

EUR/USD Analysis

While the indices are faffing about and being very frustrating to trade at the moment, have had a look at good old forex and am now on 'bear flag' alert!

EWI have this as a 4th wave and the rise up looks in my eyes to be corrective. With the daily stochastics also wanting to turn down this could go any time soon. The candle on the daily chart looks pretty bearish to me too. However, im looking for a test of the daily trendline around 13750 before attempting any short. Have placed a short order there 13750 on June to short. We'll see what the action is like tomorrow and reevaluate tomorrow evening

FTSE Short Closed

The short from JUNE 10 at 5444 got stopped out at 5550, 106pts loss. not a great month this

Order at 5558 got triggered so am short there again but all low stakes again. We're very overbought on the FTSE

Order to short ftse june now moved from 5390 to 5513 as per channel on 2hr chart

FTSE Analysis

Today we played out a triangle of some degree. Whether its part of 3 of C of 2 up or whether it was a 4 of C of 2 remains in question. The chart drawn show the former but it could be either or.

FTSE Daily channel, we're still right at the top and stots have now hit 96. It seems like the indices want to double top and it might be worth a punt to short there. Have a look at Oscar's video in which he describes the Head test of a Head and Shoulders pattern which often comes off. (www.livewithoscar.com)

I'll place a short order near the top too on FTSE June, stops not too far away

LIVE TRADE - FTSE

Started again, low leverage FTSE short June at 5444.

Hit the top of the channel on the daily chart, we're overbought hugely, 5 waves are done up and FTSE has over performed the other indices by quite a bit.

Order in also to short at 5390 below the trend line

Will try and post some counts tomorrow, had a late finish at work so not had the time

LIVE TRADES - Closed

Well, all my FTSE and DAX positions have been closed off for a hefty loss after that rocket in the indices today, so will start again. Made a major mistake in not taking profits at the bottom of Wave 1 (if it is that) and underestimated the power of Wave 2.

So here are the once profitable trades now showing a big hole in my account:

FTSE June 10 short opened at 5240 closed at 5439 = -199pts
Dax June 10 short opened at 5535 closed at 5839 = -304pts
FTSE June 10 short opened at 5035 closed at 5479 = -444pts
FTSE June 10 short opened at 5020 closed at 5479 = -459pts
FTSE Year End 10 opened at 5170 closed at 5434 = -264pts

S&P June 10 opened at 1116.38 closed at 1116.38 at b/e

Current Positions open:

Ive kept these open as theyre low leverage:

S&P June 10 open from 1062
Dow Year End open from 10249, 10076, 9810 and 9837

Any breaks of wave 1 and i will probably close these positions

FTSE - the bullish view

If that expanded flat i posted on the FTSE earlier today is valid, the bears could well be in deep sh*t :-(

And the rise up can easily be counted as impulsive as ive mentioned several times. As its 5 waves up and pretty much done with all indicators pretty overbought, it will be interesting to see how this now drops. Will it drop like a wave 3 does, fast and furious, or will it be a slow grinding wave 2. I'll have to make a decision when this happens as to whether i keep my shorts running , or take a hit and close them

FTSE - the bear view

FTSE has hit 79% retrace of wave 1 and several indicators on the larger timeframes are now showing as overbought. Daily stochastics have been in their 90s since around the 19th Feb and on the daily chart the candle has hit the upper bolly band, which looking back at previous points where this has hit, it usually suggests the rally is exhausted.

This rally of course could be labelled as a standard 5 waves up but we've seen that before on the FTSE as posted earlier this week and capitulation follows

Are we done with P2 yet?

This chart really sucks but is perfectly valid, a P2 expanded flat. Would also explain that 3 wave movement down to the March 09 lows

LIVE TRADES - Closed

Dax June shorts at

5820 closed at 5740 for 80pts profit
5529 closed at 5739 for 210pts loss

closing a few positions just in case this wants higher and have too many shorts open for my comfort