Dax Count

The Dax still paints the best picture to suggest Wave 3 of 1 is under way. Seems very weak compared to the other indices so might just be leading the way

FTSE and Wave 2's

Wave 2's i hate them with a passion! Theyre my least favourite wave because of the amount of work it undo's of wave 1. Anyway, has anyone else noticed how these waves even though they are corrective, correct up in 5 waves. See the four examples ive set out on the FTSE. If i hold my shorts, theyre gonna be in pretty bad shape, but its a risk im willing to take....for now

Indices

The Dax out of all the major indices has got the most impulsive count to suggest wave 3 down is under way. If we have had 5 waves down today, 61.8 takes us back just above the previous wave 4.

The other indices such as the Dow, S&P and FTSE look very messy but there is a possibility that the 1st wave down of 3 is a leading diagonal which i saw today as pointed out by Kenny http://kennystechnicalanalysisblog.blogspot.com/ and Daneric http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

Current positions opened and those closed

Closed

FTSE Year End 5221 - Stopped out for b/e
FTSE Year End 5168 - Closed for 16pts profit
S&P June 10 1091.2 - Closed for 1.95pts profit


Current short open positions

FTSE June 10: 5240 = currently 11pts up
FTSE June 10: 5035 = currently 194pts down
FTSE June 10: 5020 = currently 209pts down
Dax June 10: 5820 = currently 258pts up
Dax June 10: 5535 = currently 30pts down
Dax June 10: 5529 = currently 38pts down
FTSE Year End 10: 5170 = currently 24pts down
S&P June 10: 1116.38 = currently 27.75 up
S&P June 10: 1062 = currently 26.88 down
Dow Year End 10: 10249 = currently 144pts up
Dow Year End 10: 10076 = currently 48pts down
Dow Year End 10: 9837 = currently 285 pts down
Dow Year End 10: 9810 = currently 312 pts down

LIVE TRADE - FTSE

Short FTSE Year End at 5170

Finally back after being away due to work so i'll be updating my trades status and hopefully get some analysis done very soon. The rise up in my eyes looks to have finally topped at the 61.8 area and theres a juicy bear flag on the 15min too

LIVE TRADE closed

Got a connection from a hotel to check my positions. Am reducing 1 position as theres a chance we could go higher. Stops on the 2 highest positions i have on the s&p and ftse and dax at b/e.

Have closed S&P June short open from 1091.2 at 1089.25.

Current open positions

Not had any chance to post any analysis this past week nor am i likely to next week due to work commitments again but hopefully the week after that should be back to normal.

In terms of the indices count, i tend to agree with what most other EWT'ers are suggesting. The low from the 5th Feb and played out a ABC formation. So next week should take us back down. The alternative count being we're in a bigger wave 2 up.

All my orders i set last week triggered, so these are my current open short positions:

FTSE Year End: 5168 and 5221
FTSE June 10: 5035 and 5020
Dax June 10: 5820, 5535 and 5529
S&P June 10: 1116.38, 1091.2 and 1062
Dow Year End: 10249, 10076, 9837 and 9810

Am not looking to add any more positions now until we get some sort of clarity on the next count

Current Positions and Orders

Short on the following:

FTSE Year End = 5221 and 5168
FTSE June 10 = 5020
Dax June 10 = 5820 and 5535
S&P June 10 = 1116.38 and 1091.2
Dow Year End = 10249, 10076 and 9810

Short Orders on the following:

FTSE June 10 at 5035
Dax June 10 at 5529
S&P June 10 at 1062
Dow Year End at 9837

***Due to work commitments for the next 2 weeks, i wont be posting analysis/thoughts everyday but i will try depending on whether i get internet access while away***

FTSE Analysis

Current count - wave 2 of 3 of 1 of 1 of P3

As we're in a wave 3 down and i expect the next downturn to be even more fierce, im not expecting this bounce into tomorrow to last too long, just another opportunity to add short positions. Ive set orders again which ive written in the next post as to where from as i cant place them during the day/week due to work :-(

Short Orders

Placed:

FTSE June at 5049
Dax June at 5555
S&P June at 1062
Dow Year End at 9847

FTSE Analysis

Have had top re-label the count as it seems the wave 2 strength was weaker than expected after i changed my count. Shouldve stayed on my original count of only 38.2 retrace. This is why im not going long in P3, making a mistake, might as well stay with the trend and hold.

So wave 2, expanded flat up and the drop today can only be counted imho as a downward 3. Whether we have a extension or not im not sure so ive not labelled. From midnight yesterday i see 5 waves down which might have completed 3 of 3 of 1 of P3. So am looking to add shorts around the 38.2 retrace around 5170, also the 5180 area was big support, now turns into resistance, but will monitor this as i have a day off from work (yes!) :-)

Dax equivalent price is 5581, S&P 1078 and Dow 10117.

Short Orders triggered today.....

Dax June at 5535
FTSE June at 5020
Dow Year End at 9810

All other orders have now been cancelled

FTSE Analysis

The B wave down of Wave 2 hit the 38.2 area as posted yesterday and bounced. Preferred count now is C of 2 is underway towards 61.8% retrace of Wave 1. Alt count is c of B still to come which might take us to 50% and another wave 4 of lesser degree

Short Orders

Have amended the Dax order i had before so have the following orders open now to short:

Dax June - 5885 (61.8% retrace)
Dax June - 5820 (50% retrace)
Dax June - 5535 (just below the previous low)

FTSE June - 5320 (61.8% retrace)
FTSE June - 5274 (50% retrace)
FTSE June - 5020 (just below the previous low)

Dow Year End - 10252 (61.8% retrace)
Dow Year End - 9813 (just below the previous low)

S&P June - 1110.5 (61.8% retrace)
S&P June - 1049.0 (just below the previous low)

If all of these trades trigger and the markets tanks, im gonna be a very happy man, if not, back to the drawing board :-s !

FTSE Short June CLOSED

Opened yesterday at 5211 closed at 5164 for 47pts. 38.2 target reached. Leaving the Dow and S&P shorts in as theyre low stakes long term positions. Looking for a bounce to 61.8 retrace of the drop to add short positions

FTSE Analysis

The targets i gave for yesterday seem to have now converted to tops for only Wave A not the whole of wave 2. I expect a drop tomorrow but if its a weak drop we may go higher, possibly towards 5400s and the 61.8% retrace of wave 1 and where we should come across some big resistance. 38.2 retrace for wave B would give us 5236 and also area of previous 4. Also if the A wave of 2 has finished where we are now, wave B goes to 38.2 and A = C, we finish very short of 61.8% retrace 5413

So i might have been early with my short positions but will hold them and possibly bank on the retrace down depending how severe the drop is

Short Orders triggered today.....

while i was out!

FTSE June at 5211
Dow Year End at 10076
S&P June at 1091.2

Dax yet to trigger

Short Orders

Placed on the following:

FTSE June - 5211
Dax June - 5754
Dow Year End - 10076
S&P June - 1091.2

EUR/USD Analysis

First 5 waves of wave 3 down look to be complete. Count currently stands at 2 of 3 of 3 of 5.

Looking at the 38.2 area again to feed in short positions. Also wave 4 of lesser degree

FTSE Count

The first 5 waves down seem to have completed. If that is the case, im on the look out for a zigzag correction up which is normal for wave 2. We seem to have completed 5 waves up already today to complete Wave A ofthe zigzag. A pullback towards 5202 which is a 38.2 retrace of the rise today and also wave 4 of lesser degree is an ideal area for Wave B to complete. Wave 2 retraces normally 61.8 of Wave 1 as a guide but im aiming for the 5300-5330 area.

5305 is the 38.2 retrace of the whole drop from the top last month. If A = C we get 5330. Wave 4 of lesser degree and the top of the A wave of the 4th wave triangle last week is also the 5330 area.