FTSE Year End - 5221 = 214pts up
FTSE Year End - 5168 = 161pts up
Dax June 10 - 5820 = 245pts up
Dow Year End - 10249 = 385pts up
S&P June 10 - 1116.38 = 52.13 pts up (not pips)
Friday, 29 January 2010
Was that a expanded flat wave 4?
It looked like it. We even had a contracting triangle for Wave C of 4 but not sure. Out of the 3 main ratio analysis guidelines below only point (C) applied, the rest didnt.
A) wave c is 1.618 on wave a
B) wave b 1.236 or 1.382 length of wave a
C) wave c terminates beyond wave A by .618%
In any case, the count seems to be 4 of 5 of 1 of 5. Targets for the bottom could reach as low as 5090. I dont expect a extension of the 5th though as moves after a triangle dont usually last too long.
Thursday, 28 January 2010
FTSE Count
Trying to work out potential ending areas for this final 5th.
In the EWP book it says, "A triangle always occurs in a position prior to the final actionary wave". We're in that prior actionary wave now. Another quote, "when a triangle occurs in the fourth wave position, wave five is sometimes swift and travels approximately the distance of the widest part of the triangle." Widest part of the triangle gives us 5140. Wave 3 low gave 5135, so maybe a little further to go.
The very first 5 waves from the top 5601 was 172pts. If 1 = 5 we get 5111 for a wave 5 finish. If 1 = 5 from todays wave 1 (8am-12pm) we get 5123.
61.8 of wave 3 = Wave 5 to be 5119
So that area of 5111-5123 ill be looking for wave 2 to begin. MACD histo, momentum and RSI all show divergences nw on 8hr so we havent long to go imo
FTSE Count
Back to the triangle which worked pretty well
Using Fibs as per Ratio Analysis in the EWP book:
Target for Wave C, i had 5284. It did 5292
Target for Wave D, i had 5214. It did 5199, spike to 5190 due to news but settled at the 5214 area
Target for Wave E, i had 5254 but that ended up being the target for A of E. It reached 5283
So all in all not far off and if you shorted from the C or E waves highs you be in a better position now
Note to myself
Stick to the plan, dont let others blur your view!
I knew a 5th down was coming after that triangle i counted pretty well but the rally up and other comments read elsewhere got me vary!
I knew a 5th down was coming after that triangle i counted pretty well but the rally up and other comments read elsewhere got me vary!
Scrap that last post
Triangle might still be valid and done. break of 5190 area would confirm 5 in play. Havent got time to look at this properly, will try later on this evening.
Good job i said id give this one a miss last night!
Good job i said id give this one a miss last night!
FTSE Count
Triangle scenario invalidated overnight, which might suggest the first 5 waves down are over as we've had 9 wave movements down. However, we could still be in a 4th but the flat looks irregular. Posted the chart in any case.
Wednesday, 27 January 2010
FTSE and Dax counts
That late rise could be the E wave of 4 still playing out or we've had the 5th already which means ive been counting it wrong somewhere. EWI and Caldaro seem to think the later but the european charts look different. Would be strange to have a truncation without extension somewhere. Gonna sit this one out
LIVE TRADES - Closed
Closed FTSE June open at 5182 June closed at 5136 for 46pts
Closed Dax June open at 5672 June closed at 5662 for 10pts
The drop down isnt impulsive so will maybe try again near the E wave top. Possible Flat E wave
Closed Dax June open at 5672 June closed at 5662 for 10pts
The drop down isnt impulsive so will maybe try again near the E wave top. Possible Flat E wave
FTSE Count
E wave has reached the area i calculated to reach, hoping 5 down starts now.
Projected length of wave 5 are the length of the A wave triangle or Wave 1
FTSE Count
D Wave has overshot which it can do, but it is in that 5214 area i mentioned now.
E wave target 5254. 61.8 of c wave.
Tuesday, 26 January 2010
LIVE TRADE - FTSE
Cancelled the 2 short orders earlier, cant believe i got done over by the spread on both
Short FTSE June 5182, 18pts lower than intended
Short FTSE June 5182, 18pts lower than intended
FTSE Count
Count not going bad so far i must say!
Dam FTSE short order didnt get triggered at the top by the spread, gutted :-(
Wave D target is 5214 as thats 61.8 of Wave B. See Chapter 4 Ratio Analysis EWP p139
FTSE and Dax orders
Short order on FTSE June at 5200
Short order on Dax June at 5707
Hoping to catch wave 5 down
Short order on Dax June at 5707
Hoping to catch wave 5 down
Monday, 25 January 2010
FTSE and Dax
5th wave down seems to have finished. 2 counts here, either wave 2 up has begun or this is 4 of 1. If its 4 of 1 38.2 on FTSE gives 5324-5329 and Dax 5692.
Friday, 22 January 2010
FTSE Analysis
Well that previous post got blown out the water, oops, oh well. Heres another try and im still short in any case
One version of the count
FTSE/DAX/S&P Analysis
Was that just wave 3 of 3 of 1 of P3 done?
Theres 2 possibilities here for me. One is the above count. The other, an extension of the 5th wave is about to happen.
--The 3 of 3 of 1 count--
Wave 1 on the FTSE down was 136pts. 136 x 1.618 (1.618 being the normal length wave 3 is compare to wave 1) and we get 220pts
Take the top of Wave 2 which is 5468 and minus 220pts and we get 5248. FTSE low was 5253 so 5 pts off. Chart shown for FTSE. So we retrace wave 3 by 38.2 and we get 5335 for wave 4.
Apply the same to the DAX, S&P and Dow and we get a similar scenario.
Thursday, 21 January 2010
EUR/USD Analysis
Wave 5 of 1 has possibly bottomed today at 14028 with a clear 5 down. There is some chance of another low but im happy to have exited my short positions here. Will now look for a retrace back up for wave 2. 61.8 retrace from todays low gives 14723. 38.2 retrace gives 14459 and is also the area of wave 4 of lesser degree.
FTSE/DAX/S&P Analysis
Is it safe to say P3 has started even after that drop? I hope so and the counts look pretty good to confirm it
FTSE comments on chart
Dax has counted pretty perfect all the way from the top and continues to do so. So far ive counted it as standard 1-5 waves whenever the waves have played but as we're in wave 3 there is a possibility of a extension which could mean further heavy drops.
S&P looks the same as the Dax pretty much but with a double top on the daily chart. Also the Dow has invalidated that FTSE bullish count i got drawn.
LIVE TRADES
That massive tank down has blew through support. Ive just shorted the following:
FTSE Year End - 5221
Dax June 10 - 5820
Dow Year End - 10249
S&P June 10 - 1116.38
FTSE Year End - 5221
Dax June 10 - 5820
Dow Year End - 10249
S&P June 10 - 1116.38
LIVE TRADE - EUR/USD closed
Short from 14502 June closed at 14035 = 467pts
Short from 14369 June closed at 14034 = 335pts
Short from 14369 June closed at 14034 = 335pts
Wednesday, 20 January 2010
FTSE/DAX/S&P Analysis
The big break lower today suggests a possible top is in. If it is im gonna mege peed off as i shorted the year end contract at 5450 when the cash price was 5598 :-(
However, the bullish count still remains valid as we finished strong at the end of the US session. Ive altered the labelling of a zigzag down and have a expanding triangle wave B. Tomorrow again is key to see whether the bearshave taken control.
As usual i'll draw the bearish count on the Dax as it counts so well. We've had a wave 1-2-3 and the retrace back up has done 38.2 of wave 3 to possibly complete wave 4. The low tested the bottom trendline on the weekly charts from the March lows which have yet to be broken on the Dax until other indices. Its bounced off it so will see tomorrow if it can close below it.
I havent put in a s&p chart as you can intepret many counts. Triple top, double top, Flat Wave 4 etc. Until we see a clean finish below 1130 the bulls are still in control
LIVE TRADE - AUD/EUR crossover Stopped
Not having any luck with these today
Stopped again - 20pips loss
Stopped again - 20pips loss
USD/JPY Crossover - ORDER
ORDER in to buy usdjpy at 9120, stop 15 limit 20. Order valid only till 4pm.
Risky one as i wont be watching
Risky one as i wont be watching
LIVE TRADE - Dax closed
For 10pts
Trade based on a Flat (bear pennant on 15min or abc flat for the ewt'ers)
Trade based on a Flat (bear pennant on 15min or abc flat for the ewt'ers)
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
EUR/USD Analysis
That bear flag had been threatening to break for a while and finally did today to the delight of my short positions.
Question now remains whether this is wave 5 of 3 of 1 or 1 of 3 has begun. If its the later i expect another big down day
FTSE/DAX/S&P Analysis
Even though the bearish count is valid on the FTSE, im sticking to my count from last week which is we've just had wave 4 down. We need a wave 5 to take us up to the mid to high 5600s. The Dow made a new high which adds fuel to the fact new highs are still needed. FTSE also held on the 5430-5450 which i feel needs to break cleanly for P3 to be in.
The Dax still gives the cleanest bearish count and have labelled this as that for a alternative point of view. A break of 6038 invalidates the count
S&P seemed to play out a 4th wave flat as posted last week. Still looking for 1160s there
LIVE TRADE - FTSE Closed
For half a point, bearish pennant formation on 5min has put me off the long and 10ema isnt getting broken
Monday, 18 January 2010
USD/CHF crossover trade
The chart will show the crossover. I entered the trade after 9am after the 9,8,7am candles touched the upper trendline and failed to break. The stop loss was always above the 13ema and not threatened throughout the day. As we headed lower slowly throughout the day i was able to drop my stop, most of the time 6 pips above 13ema.
If you check 2hr MACD histogram it was pretty much green for just over 4 days so a short position was favoured.
AUD/USD had a crossover a couple of hours before USD/CHF and travelled more points so i guess i chose the wrong trade.
LIVE TRADE - USD/CHF Crossover CLOSED
For 9pts. No hanging about for this any longer. Its amazing when the US arent around everything is pretty much dead. Trust the first crossover trade i post live does this lol. Will try again tomorrow.
Sunday, 17 January 2010
New daytrading method
I came across this method a few months ago and had some success with it. After suffering some bad losses on it, i put it to one side. Im gonna give it another go though as ive been testing out, eliminating the mistakes i made and seems to be working ok again. This method works well in trending markets and not sideways patterns.
Set Chart settings to:
Moving Averages 5EMA and 13EMA.
Use Candlestick view
Open a buy position when 5EMA and crossed 13EMA from below
Open a sell position when 5EMA crosses 13EMA from above
You enter the position once the candle changes on 1hr chart. The difference between 5ema and 13ema should ideally be more than 1pip.
If there has been a crossover and it has produced a gap of more than 100 between the 2 moving averages, dont trade the position.
When the candle changes on the 1hour chart and the price is far from the 5ema, i usually wait for it to come nearer to the moving average before entering the position. at he moment this is guesswork as it can vary.
I normally draw trend lines on the 1hr chart and above to elimate false 'crossovers'. I also use trendlines to help me set the stop loss. There are opportunities for big gains if this comes off but im only going for 20pips at a time.
I will be using this strategy on forex pairs only. Check the chart for an example. I will try and post these trades live as they go from tomorrow
Friday, 15 January 2010
LIVE TRADE - Update
Currently 2 positions open, both on the EUR/USD
1st Position short from 14502 on June contract. Currently 115pts up
2nd Position short from 14369 on June contract. Currently 18pts down
Stops on both positions are now 14573.5 which is the previous high and the 38.2 retrace of the drop from 15100s.
1st Position short from 14502 on June contract. Currently 115pts up
2nd Position short from 14369 on June contract. Currently 18pts down
Stops on both positions are now 14573.5 which is the previous high and the 38.2 retrace of the drop from 15100s.
Thursday, 14 January 2010
Wednesday, 13 January 2010
LIVE TRADE - FTSE Short Closed
For 78 points. Opened Year end at 5450, closed at 5372.
Reason being Dow has made a new high, S&P wave 4 has gone into Wave 1 so the count is not impulsive down. The FTSE count down got very messy so i believe we still have a 5th up coming.
Reason being Dow has made a new high, S&P wave 4 has gone into Wave 1 so the count is not impulsive down. The FTSE count down got very messy so i believe we still have a 5th up coming.
Tuesday, 12 January 2010
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