EUR/GBP Short Order

On March 10 contract at 9184 as per analysis yesterday.

FTSE Long Order

At Dec 5164. Just above 61.8 of the rise from Friday's bottom and where A=C

EUR/GBP Analysis

I believe a great shorting opportunity is upon on soon in this currency pair

USD/CAD Analysis

The triangle posted on Wednesday is still valid and took a perfect bounce off the upper trendline too complete the triangle. This should now do 5 waves down which should coincide with the indices doing a final 5 up and NZD/USD doing a final 5 up

FTSE EWT Analysis - Bullish Count

NZD/USD Analysis

Daily chart shows a pretty clear 4th wave Flat which has played out leaving the way up for one more high possibly to truncate as the 3rd wave was so long. USD/CAD had also stayed in the triangle which suggests still a one more low for the dollar. In fact if anyone had questioned whether on the indices that the drop yesterday was the start of Primary Wave 3 down, they wouldve doubted if they saw the NZD/USD chart on daily. 4 hour, looks like a perfect 3 waves down.

Weekly chart has bounced off 20ma, 8 hour MACD is primed to rise too

We'll see happens now. Have got my eye on a EUR/GBP short when it gets to 9200ish, will be next week now

LIVE TRADE - NZD/USD

Long NZD/USD March 10 0.7055
Stop 100
Limit - The previous high for a 5th wave truncation

LIVE TRADE - FTSE Longs Closed

Dec longs from 5269, 5226 and 5200 for 9pts - got out for a measly 9pts for a trade that went wrong cant complain

FTSE Intraday Analysis - bullish case

Check that lovely inverse h&s building

FTSE Intraday Analysis - could also be....

FTSE Intraday Analysis

Still 50/50 with which way this is going to go, at the moment on the 5 minute scale, its does seem to favour the bears because of the way the chart pattern is playing out

We've had 5 waves up from the bottom, the a 23.6 retrace, back up to the top, then it looks like its gonna turn down and test the 23.6 area which would create a flat. Flats normally occur in Wave 4 positions, so the more we drag on across, the more this is going to look like a B wave of a 2nd wave zigzag

A=C and we get 5255 which is around the 61.8 mark for the retrace of the drop

FTSE Analysis

Was that another fake attempt at P3? its hard to say as that couldve been a c wave down too of the zigzag and fell short of a 79% retrace of wave 1. it has done 90pts since the open, up, holding onto the longs for now

LIVE TRADE FLOP - USD/JPY

Bloody hell what a killer, that just fell through the floor, smashed through resistance points over 150pts down in triple quick time and this pair is meant to be one of the least volatile. Killed the trade for a big loss, badly misjudged this one, has just totally ignored the RSI levels, RSI on 6 on 5min and still dropping, in fact all timeframes rsi is below 20 aprt from the weekly

FTSE EWT Analysis

That extra drop has invalidated that Flat i had going. Question is now was this drop 2 of 5 of 5 of P2 or 1 of 1 of P3? Todays action had the destructive force that normally relates to a 3rd wave or a C wave.

We have retraced 50% of the rise from the 1st Nov and moved down quite clearly on the 8hr chart in 3 wave movements, which would be a 5-3-5 zigzag.
Also we've bounced off a support line on the daily chart from the 13th july and 3rd nov lows.

Ive been working out some of the fibs if P2 was to finish at the 61.8 retrace of P1. On the basis that this first wave was extended and was 316 pts in length. Wave 3 would be finish around 5432 (length 79% of wave 1). If we then get a 38.2 retrace for Wave 4 to 5312 then Wave 5 is 50% length of wave 1 being 158pts, we get 5500 bang on for wave 5. Now that would scary if that came off!

LIVE TRADE

Added another FTSE Dec long at 5200. Average now 5241.

Doing the fibs on this whole 5 wave drop today, waves 3 and 5 were .618 in length and wave 1 was .382 in length which gives the magic figure of 1.618

RSI are still at silly lows and will look to bail between the .382 and 50% fibs.

Made a mess of this trade, now looking to get out really, shouldnt really be averaging but from past experience when RSI are at these levels on charts such as 30min and 1hr we get a decent retrace the next day.

FTSE EWT Analysis

Well if the Flat is complete its gotta stop here.

We have 5 waves down too quite clearly. Wont be surprised if the yanks make it rock tomorrow or early next week as they have half day tomorrow.

LIVE TRADE

Didnt bail in time and now under the weather on the FTSE. Added another long dec at 5226

Average 5255

We've done 5 down and RSI is very oversold

LIVE TRADE

Long FTSE DEC 5269. Have this as the end of a extended 3rd and 15minute RSI is on 7

FTSE EWT Analysis

Looks like the analysis posted on Tuesday at 3pm is coming off, a big flat wave and this is C down. This ties in with USD/CAD bouncing off the triangle trendline bottom for a E wave up as posted yesterday.

LIVE TRADE - USD/JPY Update

Added to the long 86.92. Average now 87.19

LIVE TRADE

Long USD/JPY March 87.39

RSI is very oversold on 4hour and 8hour scales and we have that ending diagonal again

LIVE TRADE

Well the AUD/USD trade took its time, a rough ride but finally it broke. Took 21 points

Have to make sure i move the stop to b/e as i was 13pts up then over 20 down before it came back. all about timing on these kind of trades and maybe its best to enter once the triangle has broke

USD/CAD Analysis

The Daily chart seems to be playing a a big triangle which suggests another low is due. This will probably coincide with the indices making that final push up (famous last words!)

LIVE TRADE

Short AUD/USD 0.9277. Looks like a 3rd up done also the contracting so looking for a 38.2 retrace of the 3rd

AUD/USD - Contracting Triangle

Spotted by the one that doesnt speak!

FTSE Analysis

Difficult to read short term elliott wave wise but it is bouncing along the bottom of the 4hr channel nicely which suggest it has strength. This is the trendline i have at the top. If this goes the bulls could be in action

FTSE Analysis

And here's the bullish count which is favourable to the current trend

There she goes

Ending diagonal got messy in the end and didnt reach the 5380 target i had so missed out on the drop. Still after 5 waves and tht pattern develops a short it is.

Looking at the bigger 4 hour and 8hour charts and taken 3 waves up from the start of the month, it looks like we're playing out a 4th wave Flat from the 16th Nov so we could be going low 5200s again, which gives a great buying opp for the last wave up

FTSE Analysis

We've had 5 waves up from this morning and a small ending diagonal seems to be developing in the 5th wave position. Tempted by a short at 5380ish

Divergences on rsi, stots, macd and momentum on 1hr and also on 10 and 15min charts on a smaller scale

LIVE TRADE

Have closed the FTSE Dec position for 35 points. Looks like the top of a 3 there.

Will look to buy the 4th wave dip, RSI is pretty high at the moment

FTSE Resistance

A good friend that i analyse/trade with has provided this diagram.

The 9am candle seems crucial here as to whether we're going up or down. If the new candle starts above, he bulls might well be in business, below and the bears take over the driving seat

FTSE Analysis

With the way the FTSE has opened, i just dont feel comfortable going short, its not that weak. Also with the Dow making a new high im thinking we could be on the edge of a big wave 3 up and being long is with the main trend at the moment. Lloyds is also holding up pretty well considering

30min MACD histogram is going to want up very soon and so are the lower indicators. 1hr stots have turned up too

LIVE TRADE

Long FTSE Dec 5326

Analysis as to why follows shortly

Lloyds TSB

Have announced they're selling shares at 37p inthe biggesy UK rights issue to raise some badly needed funds. Price closed ay 97p yesterday, man thats not going to be nice on the share price!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8375630.stm

AUD/USD - Timber!

Well there you have it, the contracting well and truly broke, should believe in my analysis a bit more. Asia was weaker overnight which helped

FTSE Analysis

Well i wish i held that long i had from Friday night, banked way too early but cant complain, profit is profit. The wave B i had going didnt retrace the whole of wave A and in fact the closing candle finished bang on the 61.8 retrace. So that count is still valid and looks a pretty good expanding flat. In fact only the DJIA made a new high while the rest of the indices did not.

Normally i look for the MACD histogram for clues on the 2 4 and 8hr charts and currently theyre all not very conclusive so will step aside and let the market do its thing. If the expanded flat was valid, its got to collapse pretty soonish as the next wave would be a C down of wave 2

AUD/USD Analysis

Well the contracting broke but its not convincing as normally there's a bigger tank afterwards in theory. In EWT, ending diagonals such as these appear in Wave 5 or Wave C positions. If we are gonna get a bigger retrace, you would count that as a C wave, but im in 2 minds as to whether this will happen. Reason being the indices have either done 5 up or we have had an extended 3rd which means this small retrace was a 4th before we have one more up for a 5th.

The ending diagonal could be the clue though for a drop as its also turned on 61.8fib. Throughout this Primary wave 2 rise the dollar has weakened and the indices risen. The USD currency pairs are giving mixed signals as to whether this has topped with pairs such as EUR/USD not making new highs whereas the indices have.

AUD/USD Analysis

Possible contracting triangle set up on 30min. Will consider a short if the bottom trendline is broken. This could coincide with the FTSE needing a correction as its very overbought on 30min/1 hr too

Thoughts

The rally that has formed overnight/this morning is in overbought conditions up the the 1hr chart, there are 2 counts here now, either this is a B wave of a zigzag with one more low to come or the 3rd wave up of the final 5th has started.

Unsure of this for now so will wait for it to play its hand

Good start to the week!

Result of first live trade - Position closed for 48 points. Wouldve just hit the limit on FTSE open but it was not worth taking a risk considering RSI was high and it can get volatile at open

LIVE TRADE

I am long FTSE December 5266 based on the analysis below.

My target is currently the 50% retracement but will start taking points off the table if we reach the 38.2 area depending on the situation we are in. Limit set at 5304

Technical Analysis - FTSE 100

MACD Histogram indicators on the 2hr chart seems to suggest that we are due an upleg. Price has also diverged with RSI, Stots and Momentum which prefers the long scenario

Elliott Wave Analysis - FTSE 100

The majority of this week, we have been playing out a correction in the markets which resemble a wave 2. The formation it has taken so far believes me to have taken a zigzag formation. Currently there are 2 counts i have as to where the markets are going next.

The first image shows we have had our first 5 waves down as part of the Zigzag which is the A wave. An Expanded Flat B wave is now being played out which can retrace anything between 38 to 79% of Wave A.

The second image shows us having a full 5 waves down as an A wave and now we have begun a B wave which will move in 3 waves. Projected targets for a safe trade in both cases is a 38.2 retracement.

Welcome

Im using this blog to record all the elliott wave and technical analysis i do on the stock markets. I shall be trading the markets via spread betting and will keep a record of all the live trades i make and why i make them. I shall be mainly trading the FTSE 100 and Forex currency pairs mainly as position trades.

As someone who is still learning how to trade effectively i believe keeping a record of events, decisions and trades will make me become a better trader in the future

Best regards
Tee Man