FTSE Analysis

DAX Analysis

In terms of clean EWT counts, DAX has been playing well

As per the chart we seem to be 'nearly there'. If A = C we get a projected figure of 6134. Also notice the 200SMA on the weekly chart sits at 6168. A clean break of the bottom trendline on the weekly chart taking the lows of March, June, July and November would confirm a new trend is in. This currently sits arounf the 5700-5800 mark

A short in the 6100s to hold long term might just be a very good short.

Results of Live Trades

Individual trades since i started the blog that is! Looking back at this, it was the forex trades which killed me really, stops were way too wide, lack of disipline and didnt take profit when i saw it (especially the nzd/usd trades)

NOVEMBER
LONG FTSE Dec - 5266 CLOSED at 5314 Total: 48 pts
LONG FTSE Dec - 5326 CLOSED at 5361 Total: 35 pts
SHORT AUD/USD Rolling - 0.9277 CLOSED at 0.9256 Total: 21 pts
LONG USD/JPY Mar 10 - 87.39 CLOSED at 84.94 Total: -245 pts
LONG USD/JPY Mar 10 - 86.92 CLOSED at 84.94 Total: -198 pts
LONG FTSE Dec - 5269 CLOSED at 5249 Total: -20pts
LONG FTSE Dec - 5266 CLOSED at 5249 Total: 23pts
LONG FTSE Dec - 5200 CLOSED at 5249 Total: 49pts
LONG NZD/USD - Mar 10 - 0.7055 CLOSED at 0.7105 Total: 50pts (closed in Dec)

DECEMBER
SHORT EUR/GBP - Mar 10 - 0.9100 CLOSED at 0.9021 Total: 79pts
SHORT FTSE Dec - 5319 CLOSED at 5316 Total: 3pts
LONG NZD/USD - Mar 10 - 0.7171 CLOSED at 0.7197 Total: 26pts
LONG NZD/USD - Mar 10 - 0.7197 CLOSED at 0.7069 Total: -128pts
SHORT EUR/GBP - Mar 10 - 0.9106 CLOSED at 0.9021 Total: 85pts
LONG FTSE Dec - 5288 CLOSED at 5294 Total: 6pts
LONG NZD/USD - Mar 10 - 0.7131 CLOSED at 0.7069 Total: -62pts
SHORT FTSE Mar 10 - 5195 CLOSED at 5225 Total: -30pts
LONG EUR/GBP Mar 10 - 0.9064 CLOSED at 0.8900 Total: -164pts
LONG FTSE Mar 10 - 5247 CLOSED at 5305 Total: 58pts
LONG FTSE Mar 10 - 5255 CLOSED at 5305 Total: 50pts
LONG FTSE Mar 10 - 5229 CLOSED at 5305 Total: 75pts

Total: -239 points ouch!

LIVE TRADE - FTSE Longs Closed

FTSE March 10 longs open at the below prices all closed at 5305

5247 - For 58 pts
5255 - For 50 pts
5229 - For 76 pts

Thats me done for this year trading wise. I'll continue to monitor for this overdue turn down in the indices and will look to add initial low leverage positions on the FTSE, Dax and Dow on year end contracts to hold targeting the March lows. Also looking for a bounce in the eur/usd so i can catch a long term short on that too.

FTSE EWT Analysis

I posted a few options on Tuesday last week with regard the FTSE count and it seems the triangle count is still the favourable one. There is very big support at the 5180-5200 that the bears are having problems breaking through. The shape of the triangle is questionable but it seems its either symetrical or a descending one.

The count from the bottom though has been impulsive so far as per the chart so we'll see where this goes. I see the 3rd wave finishing at 5280 resistance which is also the area of 1 = 5 in length

LIVE TRADE - FTSE

Long March at 5229, the B wave triangle is still playing out and i believe we're near the bottom of the E wave

Still long from 5247 and 5255 too

LIVE TRADE - EUR/GBP FLOP

Stopped out, serves me right for moving my stop on more than one occasion. The count i had is probably wrong too, this was not a bull flag B wave but a wave 3 down, even though it didnt act like it at the start and fooled me.

Stopped out for 164pts

FTSE EWT Analysis

Ive got 2 counts for the FTSE. One is we're still in the B wave triangle before we get the final 5 waves up to complete C of the Z wave and P2.

The other is we've started final 5 up and wave 1 is now complete. Wave 2 is in progress and 61.8 can take it all the way down to 5236. This count all presumes that we had a Flat B wave and discounts the volality that the Dubai drop had

EURGBP Analysis

I'm hanging onto the trade I have as I believe this down leg is still about to end. My timing was terribly wrong on entry right at the top of the C wave of B down but the 8hr macd crossed fooled the bulls like me :-(

If this does turn before i get taken, the limit will have to be reduced because of the very poor entry or might have to get out a b/e if the chance arises. Will depend on the situation/indicators at the time.

Not happy with the situation at all, just to willing to enter i was.

LIVE TRADE Updates

Ok, the timing of my eur/gbp trade was incredibly bad its unbelievable!

I have moved the stop to 0.8945 as i believe this is a B wave of a zigzag and C wave up is due. 0.8945 is just below the 61.8 retrace. 8hr MACD Histogram is still prime to move up.

With the FTSE, the count was wrong. Below 5229, 61.8 of the rise and i'll kill the trade

LIVE TRADE - EUR/GBP

Have gone long at 0.9064 March. 8hr MACD has crossed up on histogram and the bullflag channel on 8hr has been broken

Limit 100pts. Stop 0.8985 below the previous low

FTSE Analysis

Well those 5 reasons i gave yesterday was a load of bol***ks! Break out of the 4hr channel and im looking for long positions now on the ftse

Its difficult to get a entry now once the bus has left the station but it does look like we're in the middle of an extended 3rd after we bottom on 9th Dec 18:30. Yorkie Paul on the FTSE 100 MB posted this chart "http://i46.tinypic.com/vmuknr.png" today and im very much agreeing with this count

Have gone long FTSE March 5255. Have set orders to trigger another long at 5242

LIVE TRADE - FLOP

FTSE Short stopped out for 30pts, broke out the 4hr channel and the spike at open took out the stop

FTSE Analysis

Ok the reason why i entered the short FTSE was because of the contracting triangle which has got messy as we gone through the day

But the reasons why i stay in this trade is because

1) We are moving up in a corrective wave pattern, this is not impulsive at all
2) We are still within the 4hr channel
3) There is a possible head and shoulders formation building on 1hr
4) There is also a bearish diamond formation on 4hr as per chart. This might require me to move my stop higher if the formation is to be perfect but then it would break the 4hr channel. Will leave things as they are for now

5) Euro/usd and Gold seem to have done 3 waves down. Further weakness would drag down the indices more.

LIVE TRADE - FTSE

Short March 10 5195. Stop 5215, Limit 5145

FTSE Short Term EWT

Theres a massive contracting triangle built on the ftse 15min with just half an hour to go before the interest rate decision. Above 5240 and i'll try and short with a stop just above the triangle

EUR/GBP Thoughts

This pair is looking very bullish to me. Theres a great big bull flag built as one one of the reasons while i took profits on the short i had yesterday. I hope it tests the bottom trendline sub 09000 which could be a good long entry. 8hr MACD also building well and normally 2 weeks of the same colour on the histogram suggests a turn is near.

USD/CAD Thoughts

With the dollar likely to have turned, this pair is setting possible bullish formations.

We have a bull flag which has been playing out October which would also suggest the dollar bottomed against CAD then too. There is also a huge inverted Head and Shoulders on the daily chart

FTSE Thoughts

These triangles have been a nightmare to count EWT wise and it proved again with this drop. This B wave before a final 5 waves ups is taking the form of a expanding triangle which could mean we go lower than the 27th Nov low. 5100ish i reckon would be a good long opp to 5400

FTSE Inverted Head & Shoulders

FTSE End of day EWT analysis

The flat and the first of the last 5 waves up i posted last night for the ftse seems to have been put on hold by a 4th triangle which gave today a very narrow trading range.

LIVE TRADE - EUR/GBP Short Trades Closed

Have decided to bank what i have as there are bullish factors building such as the bull flag on the daily chart, a possible ending diagonal on 1hr and macd seems to be turning bullish

Closed trades at 09100 and 09106 at 09021 for a total of 164pts

I have no positions open now

LIVE TRADE - NZD/USD Trades Closed

Well ive been stopped on the nzd trades and to be fair have made a right royal mess of it since being in a good position last week. Was expecting a small rally so i could get out but a stop killing spike down a few mins ago has taken me out.

190 pts lost in all

FTSE EWT Analysis

This is a bullish based count, but from what ive analysed, it surely has to be on its last legs now.

Most EWT'ers have us in a triple zigzag from the March lows and this does seem to be the most sensible count. The 61.8 retrace is based around the 5500 mark and this is the area ive marked at the end of Primary Wave 2.

From the start of November, we've started the last Z wave up, the last 5-3-5 up. We've had 5 up to the 16th November then 3 down to the 27th November. Now this is the last 5 up (famous last words, but surely this time it has to work lol!)We've already had 4 waves up, so we just need to count another 5 on a smaller scale.

On the 10min chart 1 of 5 of 5 is nearly complete. I expect the 5 waves to complete by the end of the week and that should be it, finito. Everyone has been banging on about having a christmas rally that it seems so obvious now that i expect exactly the opposite to happen, a xmas crash!

LIVE TRADE - NZD/USD

Have gone long again on March 10 at 7131. There is a contracting playing out which is also on eurusd. Stop will be below the 61.8 retrace of the rise

LIVE TRADE - NZD USD - 1st trade closed

Locked in 50pts from before and the stop hit. dollar has rocked unexpectedly. Its either had a major trend change or some more annoying triangles are playing out

7132 cash is 61.8 of the recent rise so if this is a triangle id expect a turn back up

LIVE TRADE - FTSE Long Closed

For 6 pts. Could swing either way this and with the jobs data out later in the US, best to stay out

LIVE TRADE - FTSE

Long Dec 5288, around the 38.2 retrace of wave 3 down

Stop near the end of wave 1

LIVE TRADE - EUR/GBP

Short March 9106 to add to my earlier position

EUR/GBP EWT Analysis

Looking for a turn on the 61.8 retrace which is also the area of wave 4 of lesser degree

NZD/USD EWT Analysis

LIVE TRADE - NZD/USD

Long March 0.7197, taken a risk here as the bottom channel trendline is holding up well and this might turn out to be triangling rather than a Flat. If it does carry on lower, will evaluate at the low point of the Flat

LIVE TRADE - NZD/USD 2nd trade closed

Trade entered last night closed it looks like a Flat has developed which means we test the lows from yesterday again. Will look to reload there.

Closed for 26 points

LIVE TRADE - NZD/USD

Have added to the NZD/USD position at 0.7171 March.

Currently long from 0.7055 and 0.7171, average 0.7102

FTSE Long Orders

Havent got time to monitor but have put in 2 long orders on FTSE Dec, one on 38.2 an the other around 50% retrace. Will see if they get triggered

5259 and 5270

FTSE EWT Analysis

That extended 3rd count i posted yesterday looks like its come off with a truncated 5th this morning. Now we go down for a retrace before a bigger move up

On the 5min scale i can already count 5 waves down from 10.15am today and that was 5320 (top) minus 5282 (bottom) which gives us 38pts. If those were the first 5 waves down of a 5-3-5 zigzag, we retrace 38.2 which takes us back to 5296.

If A = C 5296 minus 38pts gives us 5258 which is a point or two above the 50% retrace. I'll be looking to go long there

LIVE TRADE - FTSE Short closed

For 3 points. Just feel uncomfortable holding a trade overnight which is against the overall trend. Will probably come off but not worth taking the risk if i cant monitor it

FTSE EWT Analysis

LIVE TRADE - FTSE

Short FTSE Dec 5319. Huge ending on 15min and divergences on rsi, momentum, macd and stots. This is a wave 5 position of an internal 3rd up. Will get a diagram up later

FTSE Long Order

In at 5255 Dec contract, 38.2 of the 5 up we've had from yesterday evening

LIVE TRADE - EUR/GBP

First short in

Short Eur/gbp March 10 0.9100

EUR/GBP Analysis

Didnt do that one more high id hoped for but the drop looks like its begun with 5 waves down complete to complete the first wave. Has bounced off the 2nd trendline using the lows of this rise.

Will look to feed in short positions now from the 38.2 retrace back up from this drop this morning. Pretty gutted missed the top from yesterday and what a double top that is!

Short order from yesterday cancelled

LIVE TRADE Update - NZD/USD

Move stop to lock in 50pts. If this is a 3rd wave up, the 4th drop down shouldnt go back into wave 1 area where the stop is

Indices - Bearish Alternative Count

From the one that doesnt speak!

Based on the Dax 2hour

LIVE TRADE Update - NZD/USD

Going very well so far, nice burst up this morning and 150 points up. Stop moved to b/e now. Still looking for that truncated 5th

EUR/GBP Analysis

Hoping for one more high to complete this ending diagonal in a C wave position

FTSE Long order cancelled

Didnt reach the figure i wanted

EUR/GBP Short Order

On March 10 contract at 9184 as per analysis yesterday.

FTSE Long Order

At Dec 5164. Just above 61.8 of the rise from Friday's bottom and where A=C

EUR/GBP Analysis

I believe a great shorting opportunity is upon on soon in this currency pair

USD/CAD Analysis

The triangle posted on Wednesday is still valid and took a perfect bounce off the upper trendline too complete the triangle. This should now do 5 waves down which should coincide with the indices doing a final 5 up and NZD/USD doing a final 5 up

FTSE EWT Analysis - Bullish Count

NZD/USD Analysis

Daily chart shows a pretty clear 4th wave Flat which has played out leaving the way up for one more high possibly to truncate as the 3rd wave was so long. USD/CAD had also stayed in the triangle which suggests still a one more low for the dollar. In fact if anyone had questioned whether on the indices that the drop yesterday was the start of Primary Wave 3 down, they wouldve doubted if they saw the NZD/USD chart on daily. 4 hour, looks like a perfect 3 waves down.

Weekly chart has bounced off 20ma, 8 hour MACD is primed to rise too

We'll see happens now. Have got my eye on a EUR/GBP short when it gets to 9200ish, will be next week now

LIVE TRADE - NZD/USD

Long NZD/USD March 10 0.7055
Stop 100
Limit - The previous high for a 5th wave truncation

LIVE TRADE - FTSE Longs Closed

Dec longs from 5269, 5226 and 5200 for 9pts - got out for a measly 9pts for a trade that went wrong cant complain

FTSE Intraday Analysis - bullish case

Check that lovely inverse h&s building

FTSE Intraday Analysis - could also be....

FTSE Intraday Analysis

Still 50/50 with which way this is going to go, at the moment on the 5 minute scale, its does seem to favour the bears because of the way the chart pattern is playing out

We've had 5 waves up from the bottom, the a 23.6 retrace, back up to the top, then it looks like its gonna turn down and test the 23.6 area which would create a flat. Flats normally occur in Wave 4 positions, so the more we drag on across, the more this is going to look like a B wave of a 2nd wave zigzag

A=C and we get 5255 which is around the 61.8 mark for the retrace of the drop

FTSE Analysis

Was that another fake attempt at P3? its hard to say as that couldve been a c wave down too of the zigzag and fell short of a 79% retrace of wave 1. it has done 90pts since the open, up, holding onto the longs for now

LIVE TRADE FLOP - USD/JPY

Bloody hell what a killer, that just fell through the floor, smashed through resistance points over 150pts down in triple quick time and this pair is meant to be one of the least volatile. Killed the trade for a big loss, badly misjudged this one, has just totally ignored the RSI levels, RSI on 6 on 5min and still dropping, in fact all timeframes rsi is below 20 aprt from the weekly

FTSE EWT Analysis

That extra drop has invalidated that Flat i had going. Question is now was this drop 2 of 5 of 5 of P2 or 1 of 1 of P3? Todays action had the destructive force that normally relates to a 3rd wave or a C wave.

We have retraced 50% of the rise from the 1st Nov and moved down quite clearly on the 8hr chart in 3 wave movements, which would be a 5-3-5 zigzag.
Also we've bounced off a support line on the daily chart from the 13th july and 3rd nov lows.

Ive been working out some of the fibs if P2 was to finish at the 61.8 retrace of P1. On the basis that this first wave was extended and was 316 pts in length. Wave 3 would be finish around 5432 (length 79% of wave 1). If we then get a 38.2 retrace for Wave 4 to 5312 then Wave 5 is 50% length of wave 1 being 158pts, we get 5500 bang on for wave 5. Now that would scary if that came off!

LIVE TRADE

Added another FTSE Dec long at 5200. Average now 5241.

Doing the fibs on this whole 5 wave drop today, waves 3 and 5 were .618 in length and wave 1 was .382 in length which gives the magic figure of 1.618

RSI are still at silly lows and will look to bail between the .382 and 50% fibs.

Made a mess of this trade, now looking to get out really, shouldnt really be averaging but from past experience when RSI are at these levels on charts such as 30min and 1hr we get a decent retrace the next day.

FTSE EWT Analysis

Well if the Flat is complete its gotta stop here.

We have 5 waves down too quite clearly. Wont be surprised if the yanks make it rock tomorrow or early next week as they have half day tomorrow.

LIVE TRADE

Didnt bail in time and now under the weather on the FTSE. Added another long dec at 5226

Average 5255

We've done 5 down and RSI is very oversold

LIVE TRADE

Long FTSE DEC 5269. Have this as the end of a extended 3rd and 15minute RSI is on 7

FTSE EWT Analysis

Looks like the analysis posted on Tuesday at 3pm is coming off, a big flat wave and this is C down. This ties in with USD/CAD bouncing off the triangle trendline bottom for a E wave up as posted yesterday.

LIVE TRADE - USD/JPY Update

Added to the long 86.92. Average now 87.19

LIVE TRADE

Long USD/JPY March 87.39

RSI is very oversold on 4hour and 8hour scales and we have that ending diagonal again

LIVE TRADE

Well the AUD/USD trade took its time, a rough ride but finally it broke. Took 21 points

Have to make sure i move the stop to b/e as i was 13pts up then over 20 down before it came back. all about timing on these kind of trades and maybe its best to enter once the triangle has broke

USD/CAD Analysis

The Daily chart seems to be playing a a big triangle which suggests another low is due. This will probably coincide with the indices making that final push up (famous last words!)

LIVE TRADE

Short AUD/USD 0.9277. Looks like a 3rd up done also the contracting so looking for a 38.2 retrace of the 3rd

AUD/USD - Contracting Triangle

Spotted by the one that doesnt speak!

FTSE Analysis

Difficult to read short term elliott wave wise but it is bouncing along the bottom of the 4hr channel nicely which suggest it has strength. This is the trendline i have at the top. If this goes the bulls could be in action

FTSE Analysis

And here's the bullish count which is favourable to the current trend

There she goes

Ending diagonal got messy in the end and didnt reach the 5380 target i had so missed out on the drop. Still after 5 waves and tht pattern develops a short it is.

Looking at the bigger 4 hour and 8hour charts and taken 3 waves up from the start of the month, it looks like we're playing out a 4th wave Flat from the 16th Nov so we could be going low 5200s again, which gives a great buying opp for the last wave up

FTSE Analysis

We've had 5 waves up from this morning and a small ending diagonal seems to be developing in the 5th wave position. Tempted by a short at 5380ish

Divergences on rsi, stots, macd and momentum on 1hr and also on 10 and 15min charts on a smaller scale

LIVE TRADE

Have closed the FTSE Dec position for 35 points. Looks like the top of a 3 there.

Will look to buy the 4th wave dip, RSI is pretty high at the moment

FTSE Resistance

A good friend that i analyse/trade with has provided this diagram.

The 9am candle seems crucial here as to whether we're going up or down. If the new candle starts above, he bulls might well be in business, below and the bears take over the driving seat

FTSE Analysis

With the way the FTSE has opened, i just dont feel comfortable going short, its not that weak. Also with the Dow making a new high im thinking we could be on the edge of a big wave 3 up and being long is with the main trend at the moment. Lloyds is also holding up pretty well considering

30min MACD histogram is going to want up very soon and so are the lower indicators. 1hr stots have turned up too

LIVE TRADE

Long FTSE Dec 5326

Analysis as to why follows shortly

Lloyds TSB

Have announced they're selling shares at 37p inthe biggesy UK rights issue to raise some badly needed funds. Price closed ay 97p yesterday, man thats not going to be nice on the share price!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8375630.stm

AUD/USD - Timber!

Well there you have it, the contracting well and truly broke, should believe in my analysis a bit more. Asia was weaker overnight which helped

FTSE Analysis

Well i wish i held that long i had from Friday night, banked way too early but cant complain, profit is profit. The wave B i had going didnt retrace the whole of wave A and in fact the closing candle finished bang on the 61.8 retrace. So that count is still valid and looks a pretty good expanding flat. In fact only the DJIA made a new high while the rest of the indices did not.

Normally i look for the MACD histogram for clues on the 2 4 and 8hr charts and currently theyre all not very conclusive so will step aside and let the market do its thing. If the expanded flat was valid, its got to collapse pretty soonish as the next wave would be a C down of wave 2

AUD/USD Analysis

Well the contracting broke but its not convincing as normally there's a bigger tank afterwards in theory. In EWT, ending diagonals such as these appear in Wave 5 or Wave C positions. If we are gonna get a bigger retrace, you would count that as a C wave, but im in 2 minds as to whether this will happen. Reason being the indices have either done 5 up or we have had an extended 3rd which means this small retrace was a 4th before we have one more up for a 5th.

The ending diagonal could be the clue though for a drop as its also turned on 61.8fib. Throughout this Primary wave 2 rise the dollar has weakened and the indices risen. The USD currency pairs are giving mixed signals as to whether this has topped with pairs such as EUR/USD not making new highs whereas the indices have.